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ESTIMATES

Estimated Annual Expenditures

It won’t be cheap to run; but it will be billions less than what is already being spent every year.

Annual Expenditures (v 1.0)

Because of dedicated resources and economies of scale, the City will have significantly lower per person (aka, per capita) expenditures for chronic homeless adults than any other city in America.

The majority of annual expenditures will be from three known calculated items: staffing, meals, and healthcare. The costs of these items are calculated using published data (scroll to the next section for details). Variable costs include personal items (medicine, etc.) and other fluctuating costs associated with running the City.

Please note: For the sake of simplicity in the conceptual stage, everything is calculated in 2019 dollars.

Population: 50,000
Calculated Expenditures Per Person Total
City Expenditures $3,523 $176M
Meals $1,212 $61M
Healthcare $1,432 $72M
FIXED GRAND TOTAL: $300M
Variables Per Person Total
var1 $500 $25M
Offset Per Person Total
Industry Profits (high) - -
ANNUAL EXPENDITURE TOTALS
Without Offset
Fixed + var1
With Offset
Fixed + var1 - Offset
Per Person
$6,504
No offset with
lower population

Total
$325M
Population: 100,000
Calculated Expenditures Per Person Total
City Expenditures $1,814 $181M
Meals $1,212 $121M
Healthcare $1,023 $102M
FIXED GRAND TOTAL: $405M
Variables Per Person Total
var1 $500 $50M
Offset Per Person Total
Industry Profits (high) (-)$1,591 (-)$159M
ANNUAL EXPENDITURE TOTALS
Without Offset
Fixed + var1
With Offset
Fixed + var1 - Offset
Per Person
$4,550
Per Person
$2,958
Total
$455M
Total
$296M
Annual Savings: $159M
Population: 150,000
Calculated Expenditures Per Person Total
City Expenditures $1,245 $187M
Meals $1,212 $182M
Healthcare $933 $140M
FIXED GRAND TOTAL: $520M
Variables Per Person Total
var1 $500 $75M
Offset Per Person Total
Industry Profits (high) (-)$1,414 (-)$212M
ANNUAL EXPENDITURE TOTALS
Without Offset
Fixed + var1
With Offset
Fixed + var1 - Offset
Per Person
$3,890
Per Person
$2,475
Total
$583M
Total
$371M
Annual Savings: $212M
Population: 50,000
Calculated Expenditures Per Person Total
City Expenditures $3,523 $176M
Meals $1,212 $61M
Healthcare $1,432 $72M
FIXED GRAND TOTAL: $300M
Variables Per Person Total
var1 $500 $25M
Offset Per Person Total
Industry Profits (high) - -
ANNUAL EXPENDITURE TOTALS
Without Offset
Fixed + var1
With Offset
Fixed + var1 - Offset
Per Person
$6,504
No offset with
lower population

Total
$325M
Population: 100,000
Calculated Expenditures Per Person Total
City Expenditures $1,814 $181M
Meals $1,212 $121M
Healthcare $1,023 $102M
FIXED GRAND TOTAL: $405M
Variables Per Person Total
var1 $500 $50M
Offset Per Person Total
Industry Profits (high) (-)$1,591 (-)$159M
ANNUAL EXPENDITURE TOTALS
Without Offset
Fixed + var1
With Offset
Fixed + var1 - Offset
Per Person
$4,550
Per Person
$2,958
Total
$455M
Total
$296M
Annual Savings: $159M
Population: 150,000
Calculated Expenditures Per Person Total
City Expenditures $1,245 $187M
Meals $1,212 $182M
Healthcare $933 $140M
FIXED GRAND TOTAL: $520M
Variables Per Person Total
var1 $500 $75M
Offset Per Person Total
Industry Profits (high) (-)$1,414 (-)$212M
ANNUAL EXPENDITURE TOTALS
Without Offset
Fixed + var1
With Offset
Fixed + var1 - Offset
Per Person
$3,890
Per Person
$2,475
Total
$583M
Total
$371M
Annual Savings: $212M

Understanding the Expenditures

City Expenditures Per Person

To get an idea of a potential per capita rate for the City, rates from 10 California cities are provided for comparisons. Keep in mind, the typical average cost for each chronic homeless person in cities is around $80,000.

View here for per capita rates for California cities with 50k, 100k, and 150k populations.

Per Capita Explained

Per capita (aka per person) rates are calculated by adding up city expenditures then dividing by the population. These expenditures include general government such as management, human resources, etc.; public safety, such as police, fire protection, emergency response, etc.; culture and recreating including parks maintenance, town events, library, etc.; public works including street construction and repair, waste collection and disposal, water distribution, street lighting, etc.

City Population Per Capita
San Francisco 864k $8,128
Los Angeles 3,950k $3,078
Long Beach 470k $2,691
Anaheim 349k $2,627
Oakland 417k $2,438
San Diego 1,391k $1,801
Sacramento 490k $1,464
San Jose 1,023k $1,370
Fresno 519k $1,021
Bakersfield 373k $888
AVERAGE: 985k $2,551
TRIM MEAN (20%): 693k $2,061

Meals

Using the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR) as a model for large scale production of meals, meal costs per person will be $3.32 per day ($1,212 per year).

Healthcare

Healthcare for the homeless is a large expenditure for cities. In 2015, Santa Clara County spent $276M on health care – equating to 53% of their total annual expenditures – on their homeless.  Although healthcare cost for this project is a large number, it is dramatically lower because of preventative “in-house” services, economies of scale, and utilization of modern, cost-effective hospital management techniques.

  Population
Hospital Details 50,000 100,000 150,000
# of Beds¹ 285 285 285
Estimated Bed Usage² 95 190 285
Beds per 1,000 people³ 5.7 2.9 1.9
Staff Count² 220 440 661
TOTAL Salary Costs⁵ $20.8M $41.5M $62.4M
TOTAL Hospital Expenses⁶ $37.1M $74.1M $111.3M
Per Person Cost $741 $741 $742

Assumptions

(1) # of Beds: total beds based on maximum city population and using California’s ratio of 1.9 hospital beds per 1,000 people.

(2) Estimated Bed Usage: calculation assumes the rate would be the same as California’s bed usage rate.

(3) Beds per 1,000 People: the City’s hospital bed usage rate will be significantly better than California’s rate until it gets to the City’s full population capacity.

(4) Staff Count: assuming bed occupancy is relative to population, and using Narayana Health as a model, approximately 2.3 staff members per bed (compared to the 5.2 US average listed in the American Hospital Association “Hospital Statistics,” report, 2016 Edition.).

(5) Total Salary Costs: Using data from the Census Bureau ACS PUMS 1-Year Estimate, tabulated by datausa.io, multiplied avg. salary with estimated full-time employees; then added calculation of part-time employees (assumed (half the avg. salary). Some hospital tasks will be performed by Citizen workers to reduce staffing expenses.

(6) Total Hospital Expenses: Using the assumption that hospital salaries are typically 25% of total hospital expenses, total expenses were calculated by multiplying Total Salary Costs by 4.

Variables

Variable pricing includes all miscellaneous items, such as hygiene products, clothing and shoes, medicines, and other personal items. Prescription medicines are assumed to be the largest priced item in this group; however, buying generics and getting non-US pricing will lower costs significantly. All items total to about $284 per person; however, higher numbers are used in these preliminary expenditure estimates assuming more costs to come.

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